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Sound Advice: November 19, 2025

How reliable are target prices for stocks? Target prices for stocks, as issued by financial analysts, generally show very limited reliability and should not be seen as precise predictions for future stock prices.   Studies reveal that roughly 30-54% of target prices are met or surpassed within the forecast period—with errors and bias common among these forecasts. Analysts can provide valuable information on prospective future earnings, but target prices tend to be based on valuation levels (price-earnings multiples) that are almost always much higher or lower than what might be considered normal levels.   Valuation levels are a function of several factors including prospective growth rates and consistency of past growth.   The higher the prospective growth rate, the higher the valuation. But there are several caveats.   One is that valuations will be reduced if the past had significant ups and downs from year to year.   The other is that consistency of past ...
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Sound Advice: November 12, 2025

How concerned should I be about personal identity theft? Personal identity theft remains a significant and growing concern in 2025, as the number of incidents continues to climb, affecting people of all ages and backgrounds.  Over 1.1 million cases of identity theft were reported to the FTC in 2024, a number that increased by nearly 10% compared to the previous year, while fraud losses rose to over $12.5 billion. Why It's a Major Concern Identity theft affects millions annually, with nearly 1 in 5 Americans reporting some form of incident in recent years, and the risk is not diminishing. The most common forms involve fraudulent credit card accounts, synthetic identity fraud (mixing real and fake information), and financial account takeovers.  Thieves often leverage data from breaches, phishing, and misuse of personal facts shared online. New techniques, especially the use of AI for generating deepfake identities or more convincing scam...

Sound Advice: November 10, 2025

The stock market indexes seem to be dominated by a handful of tech stocks, but how is the average stock doing? As of late October/early November 2025, the S&P 500 index excluding the Magnificent Seven stocks (the "Other 493") has delivered a modest year-to-date return of approximately 5.3% to 5.4%. That’s barely more than one third of the performance of the full, market-capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index, which was up around 15.1% to 16% over the same period.  (The Magnificent Seven stocks are Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.) Index Concentration and Market Breadth The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index underperformed the standard, cap-weighted S&P 500 by about 12% in 2024, reflecting the gap between the top performing giants and the rest of the market. Only sectors like utilities, industrials, real estate, and energy outperformed their cap-weighted peers, while tech and consumer-focused sectors were ...

Sound Advice: November 5, 2025

Should I Worry That My Home Title Will Be Stolen? Among the onslaught of media scams is one intended to scare homeowners by suggesting that home title theft is  “all over the place.”  The reality is anything but, but the scammers would like you to begin panicking now.  In the  absence of a relatively rare set of facts, you can sleep comfortably. Home title theft is a real, but rare form of fraud by which someone illegally transfers your property’s title through  identity theft and forged documents, potentially resulting in significant financial and emotional consequences to  homeowners. What is Home Title Theft? Home title theft occurs when a criminal uses stolen personal information to forge documents and transfer  ownership of your property to themselves or to an accomplice.  Once the title is in the fraudster’s name,  that person may seek to borrow against your home’s equity, sell the property or create other financial  liabil...

Sound Advice: October 29, 2025

What is the best asset allocation for a recently retired investor?   The best asset allocation for a recently retired investor is typically a balanced mix of stocks, bonds, and cash that prioritizes income, growth, and capital preservation while managing risk and market volatility. Typical Asset Allocation Ranges Stocks (Equities):  40–60% of the portfolio, with a higher allocation for those at the beginning of retirement and a gradual reduction as age increases. Bonds (Fixed Income):  30–50%, primarily to provide steady income. Cash/Cash Equivalents:  10–20%, meant to cover 1–2 years of living expenses and provide liquidity for unexpected needs.   Asset Class Suggested Allocation (%) Stocks 40–60 Bonds 30–50 Cash 10–20   Popular Guideline Approaches “Rule of 110” : Subtract your age from 110 to get your stock allocation (e....

Sound Advice: October 22 ,2025

SCAMS “R” US Watch or listen to advertising on the media at your own peril.  Years ago, we tended to believe what we saw on TV, heard on the radio or read in a newspaper.  Those days are long gone. The overwhelming majority of what’s offered today ranges between a stretch and utter and complete nonsense. Let’s start with commercials from major drug producers that include the suggestion that you ask your doctor if it’s “right for you.” All kinds of drugs are offered in settings that suggest that a wonderful life is just around the corner.  Most of these show groups of happy people.  Yet another miracle?  Probably not. One example are weight loss drugs.  Yes, they work, but there’s a hitch.  For one thing, there’s the monthly cost that will be at least $165 and possibly much more.  For another, to maintain the weight loss, you need to continue taking the drug.  An improved diet and exercise routine might be as successful and long-lasting ...

Sound Advice: October 15, 2025

Can a psychic help me? Most assuredly, the answer is yes, if you also believe in the Tooth Fairy.   Yet these days there are continuing radio commercials for psychics that would have you believe they can lead you into the future.   One would hope that they could, especially because the sponsor is proud to let you know that they accept only 2% of all psychics considered for the job.   Even better is their offer of free service if you are not pleased with the experience.   The experience begins with a 20-minute session for which the cost appears to be only $20, but you can be sure that whoever is on the other end of the phone is skilled is spending considerable prep time and following up with a wide range of gross generalizations to keep you going. Much of this is likely to be amateurish attempts to provide psychological assistance for those in need.   The problem is that these people are not trained in any area other than running up the clock.   Psychi...